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The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't
geezr_rdr
Feb 04, 2014geezr_rdr rated this title 3.5 out of 5 stars
This is a worthwhile book for those who would like a basis for skepticism about the information we get from news programs, although it could have been more concise. The most valuable chapter deals with the Bayes approach to making and updating predictions. If you can multiply, divide, add and subtract, you can use this formula as he directs. There is an error in the graphs on page 357 in that the grey areas represent "individual investors".